Making his Major League debut this year on April 10th, Hunter Greene has been one the most-hyped young pitchers in recent history. Drafted 2nd overall in the 2017 Major League Baseball Draft by the Cincinnati Reds, Hunter Greene entered professional baseball with the expectations of becoming “The Next Babe’’ or “Baseball’s LeBron”, as dubbed by Sports Illustrated. Displaying a Fastball that has averaged 99 MPH, Greene has already set velocity records in his short career, including throwing 39 pitches over 100 MPH in his second Major League game. Despite displaying remarkable velocity, Greene’s Fastball has been ranked among the worst pitches in baseball, and some adjustments should be made to his pitch arsenal in order for Hunter Greene to live up to his potential as the ace of the Cincinnati Reds rotation for years to come.
Hunter Greene currently possesses a pitch arsenal of three pitches: a Fastball, a Slider, and a Changeup. Displayed below are charts displaying the locations of his pitches, a table breaking down the velocity and spin rates of these pitches, and a table analyzing the run values and results of each of Greene’s pitches. All data provided by Baseball Savant.
Slider:
Greene’s Slider averages 87.5 MPH with ~4.9 inches of horizontal movement and ~32.6 inches of vertical movement. So far this season, his Slider has possessed a spin rate of 2355 RPM, which equals 26.91 Bauer Units. With a Run Value of -5, the Slider is the best pitch in Greene’s pitch arsenal, and is the 21st best Slider in MLB by Run Value. Throwing this pitch 41.4% of the time, Greene is able to generate swings-and-misses with his Slider as this pitch throws hitters off balance due to the velocity difference from his Fastball. Opposing hitters are producing a wOBA of .244 (xwOBA = .240) with a Whiff% of 39.2% against this pitch so far this season. Given the success that Greene has had with this pitch and the struggles he has had with his Fastball, I would encourage Greene to slightly increase the usage of his Slider, up to 45%, until he is able to see more success with his other pitches.
Changeup:
Greene’s Changeup averages 89.5 MPH with ~11.0 inches of horizontal movement and ~20.3 inches of vertical movement. So far this season, his Changeup has possessed a spin rate of 2018 RPM, which equals 22.55 Bauer Units, however spin rates are typically irrelevant for evaluating Changeups. With a Run Value of 0, Greene has had average success with this pitch despite rarely throwing it, deploying the Changeup against hitters only 5.6% of the time. Similar to the Slider, Greene is able to have success with this pitch due to the disruption of timing it causes to opposing hitters. On Changeups, opposing hitters are producing a wOBA of .000 (xwOBA = .110) with a Whiff% of 25% against this pitch so far this season. Despite the small sample size, it appears that Greene may be able to have some success with this pitch and I would recommend that, similar to his Slider, he should utilize it more until he sees more success with his Fastball. Increasing his Changeup usage to around 15% does not seem unreasonable, as long as he can continue a similar level of success he is having with this pitch in a larger sample size.
4-Seam Fastball:
The most famous pitch in Hunter Greene’s pitch arsenal is his Four Seam Fastball. Greene’s Fastball averages 98.5 MPH with ~10.2 inches of horizontal movement and ~11.5 inches of vertical movement. So far this season, his Fastball has possessed a spin rate of 2367 RPM, which equals 24.03 Bauer Units. This high level of spin on his Fastball indicates that Greene will have more success throwing this pitch up in the zone, and the Savant heat map shown below displays that Greene has been attempting to follow this approach, as he frequently locates his Fastball towards the upper part of the zone.
Despite all the hype that has been surrounding Greene’s fastball and its extraordinary velocity, this pitch has ranked among the worst in all of baseball with a run value of 11. Throwing this pitch 52.9% of the time, opposing hitters are producing a wOBA of .521 (xwOBA = .485) with a Whiff% of 25.4% against the pitch. These are not metrics a pitcher wishes to see from the top showcase pitch in their arsenal. A further look at the Savant heat maps show where in the zone Greene is generating swings and misses with the pitch, and where in the zone Greene is giving up hits.
Consistent to spin rate theory, the heat maps show that Hunter Greene generates swings and misses when he locates his Fastball up in the zone, and frequently gives up base hits when he locates his Fastball lower in the zone. In order to resolve this issue, Greene needs to add a pitch that can have similar velocity to his fastball, and also generate swings and misses in the lower part of the strike zone. Adding a Splitter to Greene’s pitch arsenal will hopefully resolve this issue.
New pitch: Splitter
In order to improve his pitch arsenal and live up to his potential as one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, Greene should add a Splitter to his pitch arsenal. As a comparison to base this pitch off, I have decided to analyze Kevin Gausman who according to Run Values has the most successful Splitter in the Majors. Prior to the 2020 season, Gausman was primarily a Fastball pitcher, throwing the pitch 63.9% of the time in 2017, 58.5% of the time in 2018, and 56.1% of the time in 2019. Similar to Greene, Gausman did not see much success with the pitch, producing negative Run Values with this pitch twice and never exceeding a Run Value of -1.
When Gausman was acquired by the San Francisco Giants prior to the start of the 2020 season, the Giants encouraged him to throw his Splitter more at the expense of his Fastball, improving Gausman’s arsenal to the point where he became one of the best pitchers in all of Major League Baseball.
Gausman’s Splitter is about 10 MPH slower than his Fastball, so the assumption will be made that Hunter Greene’s new Splitter will be approximately 10 MPH slower than his Fastball. This will project his new Splitter to be between 86.5–90.5 MPH. Gausman’s Splitter currently displays ~15.3 inches of horizontal movement and ~34.3 inches of vertical movement, and given that he and Greene have similar movement profiles on their Fastballs, I will use this as a framework for the movement profile of Greene’s new Splitter. The table below displays an overview of Greene’s new pitch arsenal with the addition of the Splitter.
Assuming development of his Splitter is successful, I would recommend Greene to throw his Splitter ~22% of the time. I have adjusted his Fastball and Slider usage to 39% for each pitch, and have eliminated the Changeup from his arsenal as it is simply a slower version of his Splitter with less movement. I would expect Greene to locate his Splitter low and in to RHH and low and away to LHH in order to generate swing and misses, which he is currently unable to do with his Fastball. In addition, I would also expect Greene to locate his Fastball more higher in the strike zone, as his spin rate indicates that the pitch will be more successful in this location, and with the addition of the Splitter he has much less need to throw Fastballs lower in the zone. These changes will improve the results that Hunter Greene sees with Fastball, and improve his pitch arsenal as a whole, in order for him to reach his full potential as the ace of a Major League Baseball starting rotation for years to come.
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